Professionals suggest that Illinois’ tax increase might inspire similar actions in other states.
A specialist at B Global Consulting cautioned that the Illinois legislators’ decision to raise the sports wagering tax could motivate comparable actions in other states across the nation.
Experts warn that Illinois’ sports wagering tax increase could prompt similar actions in other states.
Last week, the Illinois House of Representatives approved a progressive wagering tax rate. This would see the state’s most successful sports wagering operators taxed at 40%, considerably higher than the current 15%.
The new tax structure sets rates between 20% and 40% based on each operator’s Adjusted Gross Revenue (AGR). Operators with AGR surpassing $200 million (£157 million/€184 million) will face the 40% top rate, second only to New York’s 51% and the highest in the US.
Other boundaries include: operators with AGR below $30 million will be taxed at 20%; those with $30 million to $50 million will be taxed at 25%; operators with AGR between $50 million and $100 million will be taxed at 30%; and those with AGR between $100 million and $200 million will be taxed at 35%.
The proposition is part of Illinois’ fiscal year 2025 budget and has been submitted to Illinois Governor JB Pritzker for his signature. If Pritzker decides to approve the bill, the new tax rates will take effect on July 1st.
Potential ripple effects of the wagering tax increase.
Brendan Bussmann, a consultant with B Global, voiced additional worries in a Truist report. These worries primarily center on the cascading impact of the tax increase, with Bussmann suggesting that other states might follow suit and implement similar tax hikes.
Bussmann stated, “Illinois is the second state to raise its tax rate after Ohio (which boosted its rate from 10% to 20% in 2023), and investors are increasingly apprehensive about this chain reaction.”
Bussmann also specifically pointed out several other states, highlighting recent actions in those states that could potentially foreshadow a trend of tax increases. Massachusetts contemplated a tax increase earlier this year but quickly dismissed it, and Bussmann stated that it is improbable to pass in the future.
Bussmann mentioned that there have been discussions about a tax increase in New Jersey as well. However, he believes that this is improbable to occur given the state’s experience in developing gambling policies. Additionally, he mentioned Pennsylvania, stating that the state is more likely to focus on the popularity of skill-based games.
Tax Increase Penalizes Illinois’ Largest Contributors
Bussmann, himself an advocate for lower-tax operating environments, also criticized Illinois’ targeting of the most profitable operators for taxation. He pointed out that the higher tax rates would harm those operators who already contribute the most tax revenue to the state.
He also cautioned that increasing taxes could negatively impact the overall market in Illinois.
As operators grapple with escalating expenses, this could prompt them to curtail promotional activities, diminish product offerings, and present less favorable odds.
Flutter Entertainment, the parent organization of DraftKings and FanDuel, witnessed a decline in its stock value following the announcement. DraftKings and Flutter will encounter the most substantial tax burdens, as both possess AGRs surpassing $200 million.
Moreover, Bussmann even asserted that the tax hike will prove most advantageous to offshore gambling entities. Since these brands evade taxation, any potential withdrawal from the market by authorized operators will redirect more activity towards them.
What’s unfolding elsewhere?
In the long term, Bussmann harbors concerns that states yet to legalize gambling will establish higher tax rates from the outset without comprehending the industry’s dynamics.
States that have not legalized gambling include Minnesota, which ran out of time during the recent legislative session, and Georgia and Missouri, where ballot initiatives for November elections could face robust opposition from brick-and-mortar casinos.
Bussmann indicated that California and Texas remain pivotal states to monitor due to their size and potential influence on the overall legal gambling panorama in the US. According to Bussmann, California is engaging in productive discussions about placing sports betting on the ballot in 2026. However, he added that action is more probable in 2028, considering ongoing resistance from tribal groups.
Within the Lone Star State, Governor Greg Abbott opposes legalized wagering, indicating that any action is improbable in the foreseeable future, potentially not until 2027.
In other areas, Bussmann highlights that the Washington D.C. Lottery and Gaming Office opted to transition from Gambet DC to FanDuel. He asserts that this move immediately ignited worry, so much so that there are now discussions about opening the market to other operators.
Could we witness a rise in legal online wagering?
Beyond sporting events betting, Bussmann acknowledges that Arkansas attempted to contemplate legalizing online gambling earlier this year. However, the matter ultimately failed, and Bussmann states that legalization is unlikely to occur in the near future.
Maryland also failed to enact online gambling during the previous legislative session, although the state continues to confront budgetary limitations that could stimulate the debate.
Furthermore, Illinois itself remains a contender for legalizing online gambling, and Bussmann anticipates that the state will take action at some point. However, he recognizes that other legal activities within the state could impede progress.
In addition to elevated sports betting taxes, Illinois is also facing difficulties in expanding video gaming terminals to Chicago, as well as Bally’s constructing a land-based casino in the city’s downtown district.
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